Report: Pakistan’s Air Warfare Plans for the Decade

The Pakistan Air Pressure’s (PAF) growth efforts for this decade are pushed by three elements: First, Pakistan’s skirmish with India in 2019. Second, the continuing Russia-Ukraine Warfare. Third, the rising availability of superior army expertise from key companions like China and Turkiye.

Of those, the preliminary catalyst the skirmish with India, which led to Operation Swift Retort, the PAF’s air operation over India in retaliation to the latter’s incursion in Balakot, Pakistan.

The Balakot episode uncovered each tactical gaps for the PAF and, for the Pakistani army typically, a strategic concern. The tactical hole was the liberty India had in endeavor stand-off vary strikes from its facet of the border. Whereas such an assault was an eventuality (for the reason that PAF additionally had comparable munitions), the truth that it occurred in peacetime was an issue.

Up till 2019, Pakistan had relied on the concept that its nuclear weapons functionality would deter enemy assaults, be it nuclear or standard.[1] The fundamental rationale was that any journey would lead to escalation which, ultimately, will result in a nuclear trade and, due to this fact, mutually assured destruction (MAD). Nuclear weapons have been supposed to stop army incursions by India.

Not solely has India disregarded the nuclear umbrella, but it surely additionally created one other drawback: the chance of further ‘probing.’ From Pakistan’s standpoint, if the PAF didn’t reply to the Balakot assault with Operation Swift Retort, it could be liable to India finishing up further strikes. These strikes might lengthen deeper into Pakistani territory and, in flip, create widespread insecurity and instability throughout Pakistan’s frontiers, particularly Azad Kashmir and Northern Areas.

Nuclear weapons is not going to deter this exercise; thus, Pakistan needed to begin investing in its standard capabilities from land, sea, and air. Mainly, it started taking standard deterrence significantly, even amid financial uncertainty and financial vulnerability.

For the PAF, this standard deterrence posture would require constructing upon the template of Swift Retort, arguably its largest air operation up to now. Swift Retort concerned a composite mixture of 12 to 18 fighter plane, an airborne early warning and management (AEW&C) plane, and an digital assault (EA) and digital countermeasures (ECM) plane.[2] To the PAF, Swift Retort was successful in that it not solely demonstrated a retaliatory functionality, but it surely additionally inflicted better injury unto India than what the IAF achieved via Balakot, at the very least in technical phrases. For instance, the IAF misplaced a MiG-21bis alongside a Mi-17 and, in keeping with the PAF’s claims, a Su-30MKI.[3]

If Swift Retort was a template for achievement, then the PAF must exhibit that it could actually undertake Swift Retort-type operations at scale, both in fast succession or, probably, concurrently. If India concluded that incursions in Pakistan would result in equally, if no more, pricey reprisals, it could stroll away from such adventures. Thus, the PAF’s offensive functionality should tremendously enhance.

Nevertheless, robust retaliatory functionality solely varieties one half of the standard deterrence equation. The PAF additionally labored to enhance its area-denial capabilities such that it could actually neutralize an incursion, which might not solely mitigate injury in Pakistan however, in flip, reduce the strain on the PAF to hold out a retaliatory strike. Furthermore, an elevated danger of failing to hold out a profitable strike might also deter India from partaking in an journey within the first place.

Thus, the PAF’s air warfare plans for the remainder of the 2020s goal to attain two overarching targets: area-denial and the flexibility to maintain large-scale air operations. The PAF is working to fulfil these targets by way of seven core areas of labor, specifically:

Changing Legacy Platforms
Taking a Holistic Method to Space Denial
Enhancing Tactical and Strategic Situational Consciousness
Incorporating Drones into the Air Assault Aspect
Increasing Air Carry and Logistics Capabilities
Revising the Superior Air Coaching Routine
Constructing Devoted Offensive Wings

1. Changing Legacy Platforms

In a public relations video launched in January 2024, the PAF mentioned that Air Headquarters (AHQ) made the “strategic choice to section out legacy methods” whereas exhibiting footage of the Dassault Mirage III and 5, Chengdu FT-7P, Karakoram Eagle (KE) airborne early warning and management (AEW&C) plane, and CN-235 gentle transport plane.[4] Total, the PAF is working to section out older plane and, at the very least amongst its particular mission plane, consolidate its fleets.

Fighter Plane

The PAF’s push to switch the F-7P, FT-7P, and F-7PG in addition to Mirage III/5 is no surprise. In 2016, the PAF acknowledged that it aimed to switch 190 legacy fighters by 2020.[5] Then Chief of Air Workers (CAS), Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman added that the PAF sought to keep up a 400-strong fighter fleet in order that it might maintain a 1:1.35 to 1:1.75 ratio in opposition to the Indian Air Pressure (IAF).[6]

The promotional video means that the PAF is now urgent forward with changing its legacy fighters. Whereas it didn’t disclose a revised timeline, it seems that the entire shift away from the F-7 and Mirage III/5-series might happen within the short-term, i.e., the following three to 5 years, or 2030 on the newest. The brand new fighters will comprise of the J-10CE and the JF-17C (Block-III) in an interoperable high-low combine. At present, the PAF has 20 J-10CE and 30 JF-17Cs, however Quwa expects that the PAF will purchase further airframes throughout each fighter varieties via the 2020s.

However in November 2023, reviews emerged of the PAF talking to the Aviation Business Company of China (AVIC) for an unspecified variety of Hongdu L-15Bs for a lead-in-fighter-trainer (LIFT) want. In reality, the PAF sought a brand new LIFT since at the very least 2017 to raised put together its pilots for 4/4+ technology jets just like the J-10CE, JF-17, and F-16. The PAF had initially deliberate to make use of the JF-17B for this function in 2015, however in 2017, it pivoted to looking for a separate platform. Apparently, the PAF laid out that its new LIFT ought to have an afterburning engine, multimode radar, and tactical datalink (TDL).[7]

The PAF’s LIFT necessities level to a totally useful fighter, and on that entrance, the L-15B delivers. It has a passive electronically scanned array (PESA) radar paired with SD-10 beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missiles (AAM), capability to deploy precision-guided bombs (PGB) and laser-guided bombs (LGB), and compatibility with concentrating on pods and digital countermeasures (ECM) pods.

With these options, the L-15B matches the working setting of the PAF’s frontline fighters. Nevertheless, the PAF might additionally leverage these capabilities for sure missions, particularly inside safety efforts, like counterinsurgency (COIN) or level air defence.

Thus, the L-15B might emerge as a substitute for a number of the PAF’s legacy fighters, such because the F-7PG. Nevertheless, its worth would transcend taking over the F-7PG’s air defence function. By proudly owning the PAF’s COIN necessities, the L-15B can free the PAF to totally commit its extra refined fighters in opposition to its exterior threats. This method might unlock plane to allocate to the PAF’s offensive wings on a full-time foundation.

At present, the PAF has 20 J-10CE, 75-odd F-16A/B Block-15 and F-16C/D Block-52, 30 JF-17C, 26 dual-seat JF-17B, 62 JF-17 Block-II, and 50-odd JF-17 Block-I. In whole, this is able to quantity to 263 out of 400 4/4+ technology fighters, leaving a requirement of round 140 further plane…

Particular Mission Plane

The obvious plan to retire the KE AEW&C was surprising. Inducted in 2009, the KE pairs the ZDK03 PESA radar to the Shaanxi Y-8F600 turboprop-powered transport plane. The KE has been a key a part of the PAF’s maritime operations, the place the PAF deployed the AEW&C in joint maneuvers with the Pakistan Navy (PN). It appeared that the KE was interoperable with the PN’s property.

Shifting ahead, evidently the PAF is standardizing on the Saab 2000-based Erieye AEW&C. The PAF had initially deliberate to solely function the Erieye within the early 2000s. Nevertheless, within the late 2000s, it complemented its fleet of 4 plane with 4 KEs from China. In 2012, the PAF had misplaced three of its 4 Erieye AEW&C to a terrorist assault on Minhas Air Base. Satirically, the 4 KEs have been a important asset for the PAF because it crammed the protection hole brought on by the lack of Erieye AEW&Cs.

By 2016, the PAF restored its Erieye fleet to its unique energy of 4 plane and, in 2017, ordered one other three plane. This was adopted by an order for at the very least two further methods in 2020, the deliveries of which befell from 2020 to 2023. Thus, the PAF has a complete of 9 Erieye AEW&Cs.

To help this enlarged fleet, the PAF might have determined to reassign personnel from the KE to new Erieye plane. In flip, the PAF will seemingly station a number of Erieye AEW&Cs in Southern Air Command; it could take up the KE’s function of supporting maritime operations in coordination with the PN.

Additionally it is price noting that the PN can also be constructing its personal AEW functionality via its next-generation long-range maritime patrol (LRMPA) plane, the Sea Sultan. The PN might add the AEW functionality by way of the Sea Sultan’s major search radar. If the PN opts for the Leonardo Seaspray 7500 V2 (a variant of the radar used onboard the PN’s RAS-72 Sea Eagle MPAs), it could achieve an AESA radar with each air-to-air and air-to-surface monitoring and imaging modes. Although not as sturdy as a devoted AEW&C, the PN can mix the AEW factor of its LRMPAs with the Erieye’s protection by way of a TDL.

Standardizing on the Erieye additionally confirms a key issue – the Erieye can certainly help Hyperlink-17, the PAF’s in-house TDL alongside Hyperlink-16 and NIXS, the PN’s TDL. The PAF might leverage off-the-shelf options, just like the MilSOFT Multi-Knowledge Hyperlink Processor (Mil-DLP), to allow the Erieye to help and handle a number of TDLs concurrently. Thus, there is no such thing as a technical limitation stopping the PAF from connecting the Erieye to the F-16s, JF-17s, J-10CEs, or some other platform.

Logistics Plane

It additionally seems that the PAF is phasing out its 4 CN-235 gentle transport plane. Since buying the unique batch in 2005, the PAF didn’t develop the CN-235 fleet with further models.

It’s unclear if the PAF misplaced curiosity in constructing a light-weight/tactical airlift functionality or, as an alternative, has conferred the function to even lighter plane, just like the Piper M-600 or Beechcraft Tremendous King Air. Additionally it is doable that the PAF didn’t make the most of the CN-235 in its meant function as a lot because it initially meant to; thus, it opted to switch the CN-235 with plane extra suited to its precise wants.

The retirement of the CN-235 opens the query of how the PAF plans to drive missions for particular operations forces (SOF). The PAF might have opted to develop the Hercules fleet by way of ex-Belgian C-130H plane to imagine that function in addition to develop its wider air logistics/transport functionality.

2. Taking a Holistic Method to Space Denial

In 2019, the PAF had largely leaned on its fighter fleet to disclaim enemy plane entry and management of its airspace. Floor-to-air missiles (SAM) didn’t determine a lot within the PAF’s method, particularly as its longest-range ‘vector’ on the time was the MBDA Spada 2000-Plus, which had a variety of 20 km.

PAF principally used its SAMs to guard installations, not deny – a lot much less deter – enemy air exercise close to or throughout the nationwide border. Whereas it continued investing closely in fighters since 2019, the PAF additionally revealed that it constructed a brand new and sturdy ground-based air defence system (GBADS). AHQ seemingly appreciated Ukraine’s deft use of GBADS as a means of mitigating enemy air energy over one’s territory and, in flip, adopted the concept to defend Pakistani airspace.

Nevertheless, it’s price noting that along with medium- and long-range SAMs, the PAF additionally set the groundwork for leveraging directed vitality weapons and passive air defence measures. This was seemingly executed to handle the specter of loitering munitions and swarming drones.

Multirole Fight Plane

Shifting ahead, the PAF’s fight plane inductions will solely comprise of options with AESA radars, built-in ECM, helmet-mounted show and sight (HMD/S), and compatibility with long-range air-to-air missiles (LRAAM) and excessive off-boresight (HOBS) AAMs.

The PAF’s procurement roadmap for the remainder of this decade – and probably properly into the 2030s – will heart on the J-10CE and JF-17C/Block-III in a hi-and-lo combine, respectively. Each fighter varieties will probably be used for air-to-air and air-to-surface engagements, with the JF-17C managing the majority of stand-off weapon (SOW) deployment within the near-term. Mixed, the 2 fighters will play the main roles in supplanting the rest of the PAF’s previous F-7P/PG and Mirage III/5s.

J-10CE Dragon

The PAF inducted the Chengdu J-10CE in March 2022 as a part of a longstanding effort to accumulate an off-the-shelf fighter to reinforce its F-16 and JF-17 fleets. Quwa was in a position to visually confirm a complete of 20 J-10CEs in PAF service, substantiating an obvious leak of the contract signed with AVIC, which additionally listed the sale of 240 PL-15E LRAAMs.

Whereas Swift Retort catalyzed AHQ to signal the deal, the PAF sought an off-the-shelf fighter since at the very least 2015. It initially needed to accumulate further new-built F-16C/Ds (for which it as soon as aimed to construct a fleet of at the very least 55 plane earlier than the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir). Sadly, a chill in defence ties with Washington derailed these efforts, pushing AHQ to look to Russia and China.

Realistically, the one viable different to the F-16s was the J-10CE. Not solely did the PAF keep shut ties with China, however the J-10CE might additionally readily leverage lots of the PAF’s current air-to-air munitions shares (just like the SD-10 and PL-5E). The J-10CE was already interoperable with the JF-17. Furthermore, AVIC additionally labored to ship the primary batch of fighters inside solely eight months after signing the contract, a serious feat seeing how net-new inductions can take 18 to 24 months…

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JF-17B/C Thunder

Whereas the J-10CE dominates the dialog, the PAF continues to be invested within the JF-17, particularly the newest fashions, the dual-seat JF-17B and the JF-17C or Block-III.

Whereas the PAF’s baseline fighter, the JF-17C makes use of an AESA radar with HMD/S and ECM. The KLJ-7A radar has a variety of 170 km in opposition to targets with a radar cross-section (RCS) of 5m2. It could observe 15 targets concurrently in addition to have interaction 4 without delay. It makes use of a Chinese language HMD/S (seemingly the identical mannequin used onboard the PAF’s J-10CE) paired with a HOBS AAM. It could additionally leverage the PL-15E.

The JF-17B/C lacks the aerodynamic efficiency or attain of the J-10CE, however the Thunder continues to be a viable defensive fighter, one the PAF can afford to accumulate at scale because of its current working infrastructure, native manufacturing capability, and decrease prices.

The PAF had initially deliberate to accumulate 50 JF-17Cs; to this point, it solely dedicated to 30 models.[9] The PAF seemingly cut up its JF-17C order with the dual-seat JF-17B. It’s price noting that the JF-17B continues to be largely much like the JF-17C – i.e., it makes use of the brand new fly-by-wire (FBW) flight management system, has the capability to help an AESA radar, and different enhancements.[10] Thus, the PAF can convey its JF-17Bs in the direction of a typical configuration with the JF-17C, giving it 56 ‘superior mannequin’ JF-17s in whole…

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L-15B

In comparison with the J-10CE and JF-17B/C, the L-15B is much less sure because the PAF has but to formally affirm whether it is actively pursuing the platform. That mentioned, the L-15B can function as a useful fighter plane, one that might deploy the SD-10 LRAAM. This may very well be useful as an inside safety or level air defence asset behind the J-10CE, JF-17C, F-16, and JF-17 Block-I/II.

Floor-to-Air Missiles

The PAF is now not counting on solely fighter plane for space denial; reasonably, SAMs will assist enhance its first-response mechanism in opposition to enemy air exercise. To this finish, the PAF has begun investing in each medium-to-long-range SAMs and long-range SAMs.

Till latest years, the PAF’s major SAM options have been the MBDA Spada 2000-Plus, French Crotale 2000, and Mistral man-portable air defence methods (MANPADS). Historically, the PAF’s GBADS was not constructed for territorial defence, however point-defence over installations, like air bases and radar websites.

Now, nonetheless, the PAF considers its GBADS an important asset for territorial defence, one meant to work in shut live performance with its fighter fleet. The brand new PAF GBADS is a multi-layered system made up of long-range, medium-range, and short-range SAMs plus different lively and passive anti-air methods, comparable to directed vitality weapons (DEW) and digital assault (EA) methods.

HQ-9BE

In its promotional video, the PAF confirmed that it inducted the HQ-9BE, a long-range SAM system. It could intercept quite a lot of goal varieties, together with:

Fight plane at a variety of as much as 260 km and altitude of 27 km
Air-to-ground missiles (AGM) at a variety of as much as 50 km and altitude of 18 km
Cruise missiles at a variety of as much as 25 km and altitude better than 0.02 km
Tactical ballistic missiles (TBM) at a variety of as much as 25 km and altitude of 18 km

The HQ-9BE missile’s steerage suite makes use of an inertial navigation system (INS) aided by a land-based concentrating on radar by way of datalink and a terminal-stage lively radar-homing (ARH) seeker.

In contrast to the older HT-XXX collection of steerage radars discovered on the FD-2000, the HQ-9BE makes use of the JSG-400 TDR steerage radar, which is designed for TBM interceptions, and the JPG-600 TDR surveillance radar. Moreover, the battery makes use of a command-and-control (C2) system and digital counter-countermeasures (ECCM) system, plus a number of decoy autos.

The HQ-9BE is marketed as a restricted theater air defence answer that might intercept fighter plane and long-range munitions. China Aerospace Science and Business Company (CASIC) says that the HQ-9BE can intercept TBMs with ranges of as much as 1,000 km. The HQ-9BE can reply in opposition to TBMs in 10 seconds and non-TBMs inside 15 seconds. It’s mainly the PAF’s most superior SAM system.

The PAF particularly highlighted counter-TBM and counter-cruise missile capabilities. Whereas this was seemingly in reference to the HQ-9BE, it could point out that the PAF is within the thought of constructing anti-ballistic missile (ABM) capabilities within the long-term. The HQ-9BE may very well be the start line.

HQ-16FE

Along with the HQ-9BE, the PAF additionally revealed that it acquired the Chinese language HQ-16FE, which can also be designated because the LY-80B. It is a vastly improved variant of the LY-80 already in service with the Pakistan Military and the Pakistan Navy. The HQ-16FE appears to kind the PAF’s medium-to-long-range air defence layer.

The HQ-19FE provides a variety of 25 km to 160 km with a minimal/most intercept altitude of 15 m to 27 km in opposition to fighter-sized targets. It leverages a datalink-aided INS steerage system in addition to a dual-mode semi-active and active-radar homing (SARH/ARH) seeker. The HQ-16FE’s major steerage radar is a 2D active-scanning phased-array system with a variety of 250 km in opposition to “regular” fighter-sized targets, seemingly in reference to a radar cross-section (RCS) of 5m2. It could concurrently observe 12 targets and interact 8 without delay…

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Digital Warfare

For the PAF, digital warfare (EW) was historically a vital a part of its offensive operations; however it’s now leveraging EW for space denial. In its promotional video, the PAF highlighted at the very least three new land-based EW methods: HISAR-1, MIGAES, and EADS…

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3. Enhancing Situational Consciousness

The PAF is utilizing a variety of radars and passive sensors to construct its situational consciousness, not simply over Pakistani territory, however, probably, throughout its borders too.

Multi-Layered Radar Protection

The PAF’s radar coverages use a mixture of land-based radars and airborne early warning and management (AEW&C) methods. Collectively, these property monitor Paksitani airspace throughout a number of radar bands whereas additionally offering help for various missions, together with offensive operations.

Horizon-7

It seems that the PAF has begun designating its Erieye AEW&C because the ‘Horizon-7’. The PAF operates seven to 9 Erieye methods, with the newest unit being inducted as not too long ago as January 2024.

With the Saab 2000 as its plane platform, the Erieye is an S-band lively electronically scanned array (AESA) radar with a variety of 450 km. It additionally has 5 onboard mission operator consoles for managing linked air and floor property for air-to-air and air-to-surface maneuvers.

Being an airborne radar system, the Erieye additionally provides the PAF with over-the-horizon (OTH) protection, which it could actually leverage to observe the airspace of its neighbours, particularly India and Iran.

It seems that the PAF is standardizing its AEW&C fleet on the Erieye. Furthermore, its newest unit – i.e., 23-058 – exhibited some totally different {hardware} in comparison with the PAF’s previous Erieye models. This unit is unlikely to be the Erieye-ER, however it could have updates much like Brazil’s E-99M, which is an upgraded Erieye system. That mentioned, the PAF might search the Erieye-ER sooner or later, however as an offensively oriented asset that may help its long-range strike wings.

YLC-8E

The PAF additionally confirmed that it has inducted the YLC-8E radar from the China Electronics Know-how Group Company (CETC). The YLC-8E is marketed as an ‘anti-stealth radar system,’ however to the PAF, it seemingly serves as a land-based early warning radar system…

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TPS-77 MRR

The PAF additionally confirmed that it inducted the Lockheed Martin TPS-77 Multi-Position Radar (MRR). Whereas it didn’t disclose what number of models it acquired, some observers peg the quantity at over 20 radars. The PAF acquired the TPS-77 MRR for its low-level gap-filler radar requirement…

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Passive Sensors

The PAF confirmed that it inducted at the very least one passive sensor, amongst them the ERA VERA-E and a Chinese language system (that will or might not accompany the CHL-906, as defined above)…

4. Incorporating Drones into Air Assault Aspect

Drones should not new to the PAF. For instance, the Leonardo Falco has been a fixture of the PAF’s ISTAR functionality since at the very least the late 2000s. From the early 2010s, nonetheless, the PAF began utilizing armed unmanned aerial autos (UAV) within the floor assault function by way of the NESCOM Burraq.

Within the subsequent years, the PAF has steadily elevated its funding in drones, together with medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) and high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) UAVs. By buying a variety of drones, the PAF could also be planning to make use of UAVs in quite a lot of missions/roles.

MALE and HALE UAVs

The PAF’s rising drone stock leverages a mixture of international and home designs throughout many measurement and weight courses, from the 700 kg Bayraktar TB2 to the 6,000 kg Bayraktar Akıncı.

Bayraktar Akıncı

In 2023, the PAF revealed that it inducted the Bayraktar Akıncı, a HALE UAV with a most take-off weight (MTOW) of 6,000 kg. It’s the largest UAV in use by the PAF, providing an endurance of 24 hours and a payload capability of 1,500 kg throughout eight hardpoints.

By its promotional footage, the PAF confirmed that it intends to make use of the Akıncı within the strike function; for instance, it has configured the Akıncı with the IREK, which might reconfigure Mk82 and Mk83 normal function bombs (PGB) into gliding PGBs.

The Akıncı design is able to deploying different stand-off vary weapons (SOW) as properly, comparable to air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM). The PAF appears to be pursuing this feature by way of a collaborative effort with Baykar Group. For instance, the 2 entities are collectively creating the KaGeM V3, a lighter weight ALCM that will complement the Taimur/Ra’ad-series ALCMs…

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Loitering Munitions

The PAF additionally revealed that it has inducted a loitering munition, i.e., the ‘YX’ collectively produced by the Nationwide Aerospace Science and Know-how Park (NASTP) and Baykar Group. Although inducted, this ‘YX’ seems to be an iterative program as there’s a newer model – or evolution – in developed referred to as the ‘Python.’ In both case, this design appears to be stand-alone in that it doesn’t rely upon a launch platform; reasonably, it launches independently…

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5. Increasing Air Carry and Logistics Capabilities

Although it’s apparently retiring its 4 CN-235s, the PAF is increasing its airlift capabilities as an entire, with a stronger concentrate on rising its Hercules fleet. To that finish, the PAF ordered seven second-hand C-130H plane from Belgium. 4 of those plane have been inducted as of 2023; it’s unclear what is going to occur with the remaining three models.

C-130H

The ex-Belgian C-130Hs will be a part of the PAF’s 5 C-130B and 9 to 11 C-130E. The PAF upgraded its C-130B and C-130E between 2014 and 2017. Will probably be price seeing if the PAF configures its C-130H’s avionics suite alongside comparable traces of its C-130B/Es, which use the Rockwell Collins Flight2…

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6. Revising Superior Air Coaching Program

The PAF’s whole fighter fleet will shift to 4-generation and 4-generation-plus plane by the tip of this decade, with the majority of the fleet leveraging AESA radars, HMD/S, and built-in ECM. Thus, the PAF sought a devoted LIFT to familiarize its new pilots with these applied sciences earlier than jointing a frontline J-10CE, JF-17, or F-16 squadron. Past 2030, these new pilots might be a part of a stealth fighter unit.

In 2015, the PAF acknowledged that it was concerned about utilizing the JF-17B as a lead-in-fighter-trainer (LIFT); and it was frank about its disinterest in a smaller plane for the function. Its major concern was that the devoted LIFT like an L-15 would have excessive working prices, probably at-par with the JF-17.

Nevertheless, in 2017, the PAF pivoted from the JF-17B to exploring devoted LIFT designs, specifically the AVIC L-15B and Leonardo M-346. In 2023, the PAF reportedly started negotiations for the L-15B.

L-15B

When discussing its LIFT necessities, the PAF highlighted three core necessities: afterburning engine, multi-mode radar, and tactical datalink (TDL)…

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7. Constructing Devoted Offensive Wings

The Balakot episode uncovered the necessity for an improved speedy response, area-denial functionality; therefore why the PAF acquired the HQ-16FE medium-to-long-range SAM and HQ-9BE long-range SAM. These will increase the PAF’s rising pressure of AESA radar- and LRAAM-equipped fighter plane.

Nevertheless, constructing a retaliatory capability was equally vital for deterrence functions. Mitigating a cross-border strike just isn’t sufficient, however in Pakistan’s view, it should be adopted up with a measured, but impactful and quickly employed, response. From Rawalpindi’s standpoint, establishing the specter of in depth standard retaliation by air and from land might deter a future Balakot challenge fully.

To attain this purpose, the PAF seemingly concluded that it should construct the capability to help a number of Swift Retort-scale operations, be it in fast succession or concurrently.

Operation Swift Retort leveraged a composite pressure of multirole fighter plane, AEW&C, and EA/ECM jamming plane. By the remainder of this decade, the PAF might orient extra of its squadrons for the offensive function in order that it could actually help extra Swift Retort-type operations. The induction of the HQ-16FE and HQ-9BE might unlock further models (that may have in any other case been devoted fully for an air defence operate) to tackle extra strike/assault duties. Chief amongst these models could be the JF-17C and J-10CE squadrons; the Bayraktar Akıncı might complement them as a SOW service (that may deploy ALCMs and gliding PGBs from a secure distance inside Pakistani territory, just like the Mirages did).

The near-term composition might contain the J-10CE within the top-cover and the JF-17B, JF-17C/Block-III, and Akıncı within the strike roles, respectively. Doubtlessly, the JF-17 Block-II could also be upgraded with an AESA radar, up to date avionics suite, HMD/S, and improved ECM functionality. Nevertheless, the Block-II could also be employed for the defensive area-denial function (alongside the F-16s and JF-17 Block-Is).

Nevertheless, this composition would solely be efficient on this decade. India can also be constructing a sturdy – if not standard-bearing – area-denial functionality via a plethora of superior SAMs (e.g., Barak-8) in addition to cutting-edge 4+ fighters, just like the Rafale and Tejas Mk1A. The PAF seemingly anticipates a markedly more durable menace setting in India sooner or later, therefore why it’s now actively bringing NGFAs into the dialog. The Shenyang J-31 is on the heart of this push.

Shenyang J-31

The centerpiece of the PAF’s future offensive air factor would be the J-31, a twin-engine stealthy next-generation fighter plane (NGFA). The PAF has formally dedicated to buying the J-31.

The PAF’s focus is probably going on constructing an optimum mixture of vary, payload, and low-observability (LO) – or stealthiness on radar and infrared – in a single multirole platform. This one fighter might probably drive the required long-range air-to-air and air-to-surface work of the PAF’s offensive wings…

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Manned-Unmanned Teaming

An indication of the PAF’s curiosity in UCAVs was the reference it made to manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T). The PAF didn’t reveal the way it will construct MUM-T capabilities, however one can fairly see it utilizing the broader trade’s normal route as its reference level…

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New Airborne Standoff Jammer(s)

The PAF has additionally (albeit not directly) introduced that will probably be augmenting its EA/ECM fleet with at the very least one new airborne stand-off jamming plane (ASOJ). This new ASOJ will use the Bombardier World Specific 6000 as its platform. It’s unclear if the PAF will purchase the Aselsan HAVASOJ suite or develop an unique answer of its personal. The variety of ASOJs acquired will seemingly correspond to the variety of devoted offensive wings the PAF is ready to elevate within the 2020s…

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8. Potential Objectives

To date, the PAF’s growth efforts for this decade have been complete in scope, fighter plane, drones, SAMs, land-based EW/ESM, land-based EA/ECM, airborne and land-based radars, airlift growth, and a brand new stand-off jamming plane.

Nevertheless, there are a number of underdeveloped areas that the PAF might start focusing, probably by the tip of this decade, with work carrying via into the 2030s.

Attritable Loyal Wingman UCAV

With a acknowledged concentrate on MUM-T, the PAF will seemingly procure attack-capable UCAVs (much like the Bayraktar Kızılelma or TAI ANKA-3) and an attritable decoy UAV based mostly on a goal drone.

However there could also be room for a further kind, a design that might fill the area between a sub-1-ton decoy and 9-10-ton UCAV. This may very well be a 2-4-ton loyal wingman UCAV, which might be able to deploying air-to-air missiles and small air-to-surface munitions. It might accompany the NGFA and assist maintain losses by being the first decoy and assault possibility in high-risk environments…

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[1] Sadia Tasleem. “Pakistan’s Nuclear Use Doctrine.” Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace. 30 June 2016. URL: https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/30/pakistan-s-nuclear-use-doctrine-pub-63913

[2] Alan Warnes. “Operation Swift Retort: One 12 months On.” Air Forces Month-to-month. April 2020. Web page 35. URL: https://airforcesmonthly.keypublishing.com/the-magazine/view-issue/?issueID=8176

[3] Ibid.

[4] “PAF Checkmates Pakistan’s Enemies.” Pakistan Air Pressure (PAF) Press Launch. 16 January 2024. URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_2Osf0r-p4&ab_channel=PakistanAirForce

[5] “Pakistan Air Pressure Must Substitute 190 Planes by 2020.” Daybreak Information. 15 March 2016. URL: https://www.daybreak.com/information/1245714/pakistan-air-force-needs-to-replace-190-planes-by-2020

[6] Bilal Khan. “Pakistan’s Subsequent – Close to-Time period – Steps for Bridging Airpower Hole.” Quwa. 25 March 2018. URL: https://quwa.org/2018/03/25/pakistans-next-near-term-steps-for-bridging-airpower-gap/

[7] Alan Warnes. Interview. Air Chief Marshal Mujahid Anwar Khan, Chief of the Air Workers, Pakistan Air Pressure. IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly. 22 Might 2019.

[8] Paul Lewis. “Improvise and modernise”. Flight Worldwide. 24 February 1999. URL: https://internet.archive.org/internet/20120304081417/http://www.flightglobal.com/information/articles/improvise-and-modernise-48468/ (Final Accessed: 22 March 2018).

[9] Alan Warnes. “Pakistan’s roaring Thunder.” Air Forces Month-to-month. Might 2021.

[10] Alan Warnes. “Two-seat JF-17B progresses.” AirForces Month-to-month. April 2017