Maiden Test for India’s Agni-5 MIRV Missile

On March 11, the Indian Protection Analysis and Improvement Group (DRDO) undertook the maiden take a look at of its indigenously developed Agni-V MIRV (A number of Independently Targetable Re-Entry Car) missile. 

Based on a Ministry of Protection press launch, the flight take a look at, named Mission Divyastra, was launched from a missile launch website on Abdul Kalam Island off the coast of Odisha within the japanese a part of India. The launch was tracked and monitored by totally different telemetry and radar stations, and it was concluded that the mission “completed the designed parameters.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi and different senior leaders together with Protection Minister Rajnath Singh congratulated the DRDO scientists on the profitable endeavor of the MIRV missile launch. 

MIRV functionality is a fancy know-how and India’s take a look at this week places India amongst a small group of nations – the USA, United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China – which have developed it. With MIRV know-how a single intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) can carry and ship a number of warheads at totally different places a number of hundred kilometers aside. The Agni-V, which at the moment has an formally claimed  vary of 5,000 km technically qualifies solely as an intermediate vary ballistic missile (IRBM), and never an ICBM as a result of ICBMs are missiles with ranges over 5,500 km. However the official declare of 5,000 km most likely understates the vary of the missile, with many studies claiming it’s a true ICBM with an 8,000 km vary. 

Most analysts counsel that the MIRVed Agni-V will be capable to carry 4 to 6 warheads, though Air Marshal Anil Chopra said in an article that Agni-V can carry 10-12 warheads. One other Indian media story quoted Dr. Avinash Chander, former head of the DRDO and a key individual behind the Agni missile program, as having mentioned in 2007 that the following variant of the Agni missile “could be a a number of warhead missile with a capability to hold 4 to 12 warheads.” MIRVed missiles also can carry decoys, making identification of precise warheads much more difficult for the adversary and lowering the effectiveness of missile protection methods.

MIRV functionality is usually thought of to boost India’s nuclear deterrence functionality. However consultants argue that it’s going to contain “a number of extra assessments to finish the event of an operational MIRV functionality for the Agni-V.” 

Previous to the launch, as per India’s commitments beneath the Hague Code of Conduct towards Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCOC), India needed to inform international locations corresponding to Australia and Indonesia in addition to air and maritime visitors within the take a look at space in regards to the impending take a look at. A media report additionally famous that there have been Indian Navy warships with DRDO scientists in addition to monitoring and monitoring methods that had been deployed within the southern Indian Ocean, which was the affect level of the missile take a look at. 

The Agni-V missile has gone by numerous assessments since 2012. In December 2022, the Indian Strategic Forces Command undertook the first evening trial of the Agni-V. Following the take a look at, protection officers spoke to India At present TV and claimed that the DRDO has accomplished vital weight discount on the Agni-V missile in order that it may strike targets past 7,000 km. Protection officers reportedly claimed, “The burden discount that has been achieved within the missile system is past 20 % and if the federal government desires, the nuclear-capable strategic missile can transcend 7,000 km.” Reportedly, the burden of the missile will be lowered by changing its metal content material with composite supplies. Comparable weight modifications had been accomplished earlier on Agni-III missiles with the identical aim of extending the vary of the strategic missiles. 

Ajai Shukla, an Indian army analyst wrote that the Agni-V missile might be made so much lighter by “changing older, heavier sub-systems with lighter, extra dependable ones, together with parts made with light-weight composite supplies.” Additionally, the “alternative of hydraulic actuators within the Agni-V’s big first stage with the state-of-the-art, electro-mechanical actuators that already equip Stage 2 and Stage 3” are helpful in lowering the burden of the missile, which may then improve its vary. He argued that along with the good thing about weight discount, shifting from hydraulic to electro-mechanical actuators is useful in addressing potential issues corresponding to oil storage and leakage. Lastly, electro-mechanical actuators are thought of “extra dependable and straightforward to keep up.” 

However, in fact, there are challenges related to MIRV know-how too. Miniaturization of nuclear warheads, creating superior steering and navigation management methods, and guaranteeing the reliability of particular person re-entry automobiles are all points typically with MIRVed missiles. An Indian media report quoting nameless extremely positioned sources famous that the MIRV system has “indigenous avionics methods and high-precision sensor packages, guaranteeing the re-entry automobiles exactly hit their goal factors.” 

It seems that MIRV functionality is spreading, and extra international locations could also be pursuing this know-how. A Federation of American Scientists (FAS) report mentioned that India’s pursuit is a observe as much as China’s operationalization of MIRVs on a few of its DF-5 ICBMs and potential improvement of MIRVs by Pakistan for its Ababeel medium-range missile. The report famous that North Korea may be creating a MIRV functionality.

As China expands and modernizes its nuclear wherewithal, India might really feel compelled to maintain tempo with China, however that can even create a potential response in Pakistan. It might probably result in an costly and spiraling arms race in South Asia. Furthermore, China’s nuclear growth and modernization might set off responses within the East Asian neighborhood as properly, leading to a a lot wider arms buildup. 

Due to this fact, so much hinges on China’s strategic functionality improvement and its conduct. Sadly, at the least beneath Xi Jinping’s management, China has not demonstrated the type of prudence and care that makes anybody assured that Beijing will make the proper selections.